Smuggling in Tunisia is often presented as a field of mystery and conspiracy. But we actually know a lot about how it works, and that engaging with it effectively requires strengthening rather than alienating border communities. This is a 'Long Read' for Nawaat, with lovely illustrations by Othman Selmi.

Kais Saied has threatened to walk away from his country’s deal with the International Monetary Fund. Can fixing Tunisia’s tax system be the solution?

For most of modern history, cannabis has primarily been produced in lower income countries for consumption in Europe and North America. Most profits have however have not reached traditional producers, and instead be concentrated in the hands of organised crime groups. As the cannabis market legalizes and formalizes, there was some hope that this will change. But, as Giovanni Occhiali and I discuss in this piece for the New Left Review's "Sidecar", the legal global cannabis market it is currently on track to reproduce many of the same symptoms as its forerunner, with traditional producers again finding profits located elsewhere – this time primarily with formal firms in high income countries.

In this piece for The Conversation, Nana Akua Anyidoho, Mike Rogan, Vanessa van den Boogaard and I draw on our previous work on Ghana's E-Levy to highlight that discarding its threshold, as is currently discussed, would be particularly painful for some of the most vulnerable workers in Accra's informal economy. 

Improving the equity of the tax system, as called for by the IMF, is an important ambition. But taxing wealth and property, not the informal sector, is the best way to do it, Vanessa van den Boogaard and I argue in this article for Middle East Eye.

Ghana’s introduction of a a 1.5% tax on mobile money transactions in May 2022 has been watched closely by policymakers across Africa. The proponents of the electronic transaction levy (e-levy) argue that taxes on mobile money — commonly referred to in Ghana as MoMo — present an opportunity for cash-strapped governments to raise funds in the complex post-pandemic context. In this piece for The Conversation, my colleagues Nana Akua Anyidoho, Mike Rogan, Vanessa van den Boogaard and I draw on new data to highlight the regressive effects of the tax on the country's most vulnerable workers.

After a year of dramatic political changes, Tunisia is back to negotiating with the IMF. As many feel a deja vu, I argue in my latest piece for Middle East Eye that Saied's economic dilemma is not just a lack of vision, but of his failure to build a new political coalition around economic reform. Quite stunningly, he has not used his political project to give him any more room than his predecessors.

In this article for Medias24, my colleagues Soukayna Remmal, Giovanni Occhiali and I outline the challenges that and tradeoffs that cannabis taxation in Morocco might face, and which opportunities lie ahead.

Many low and middle-income countries face a myriad of challenges, including high and rising inequality, budget crises and the ongoing pandemic. In a set of recent outputs, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented an approach that they argue can tackle all three crises at the same time: fighting informal economies. In this article for 'The Conversation', Mike Rogan, Vanessa van den Boogaard and I argue that this approach is fundamentally flawed.

A study in 2014 estimated that Moroccans pay 40 billion MAD, or 4.1 billion USD in Zakat every year -  over three times the annual budget of the INDH, Morocco’s flagship poverty reduction program. Given these sums, it is not surprising that Morocco seems to be the latest state seeking to ‘harness’ zakat revenues by setting up a state-run zakat fund. In this blog, published in English by the ICTD and in French by Medias24, my colleagues Umair Javed, Soukayna Remmal, Vanessa Van den Boogaard and I draw on survey data from our comparative research project on zakat and the state to discuss how Moroccans might feel about a state fund, and what that means for attemts to set up a Moroccan fund.

In recent years, the legalisation of cannabis – initially for medical use, and increasingly for recreational use – has become a common policy talking point. But can legalised cannabis production become a new revenue source for low and middle-income countries? In this blog, written with Giovanni Occhiali and Soukayna Remmal, we discuss the prospects and challenges involced in cannabis taxation for LMICs.

In the context of public revenue challenges brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic, ‘taxing the informal economy’, or ‘broadening the tax net’, have become popular talking points in low and middle income countries. This ICTD policy brief, written with Mick Moore and Vanessa van den Boogaard, explores why attempts to tax the informal economy are not the public finance silver bullet that they are sometimes suggested to be, highlighting in particular limited revenue prospects and grave equity concerns.

Dozens of Moroccan farmers have been ordered to leave the palm groves of El Arja, as Algeria asserts territorial claims to the area. In this article for Middle East Eye, Yasmine Zarhloule and I situte the event in the complex history of the borderland in question. We discuss how the people of the borderland have adjusted to living in the proximity of a contested political symbol, alongside the perspectives and demands that this has given rise to. 

In this article for Morocco's "L'Economiste", Soukayna Remmal and I discuss Morocco's informal economy, responding to a recent report by the HCP and arguing that suggested decreases in VAT rates will not have a substantial impact on informality. Instead, we argue for a more holistic look at Morocco's informal economy that recognises its structural role within the country's economy and development model. 

Smuggling has historically been a solution for Maghrebi states, ensuring stability in often marginalised areas. This has changed in recent years, with increasingly securitised policies being put in place. These policies have had a significantly negative impact on borderland communities, leading to heightened unemployment, crime and migration, as Matt Herbert and I discuss in this report.

In recent years, both Tunisia and Morocco have created new laws to simplify the registration of informal workers as self-employed workers. Does this spell good news for informal workers in the region? What are the differences between the laws and the challenges ahead? Othmane Bourhaba and I discuss in this article for the Friedrich Ebert Foundation.

A discussion of the methodological and policy challenges around informal work done by women in India during the Covid-19 pandemic, written with Vanessa van den Boogaard, Aiman Haque and Paromita Sen of SEWA.

I spoke to the podcast of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime about smuggling in North Africa, the effects of new border infrastructures, and their effects on border communities. 

This report, written together with Matt Herbert, offers a sizing and analysis of the developing trends around drugs in the Maghreb. It begins by detailing the production of narcotics in the Maghreb, including both cannabis and poppies. It focuses on the trafficking of these products, exploring the types of drugs that transit the region, the routes they take and the groups involved in their movement. The report then looks at drug consumption trends in the Maghreb, before detailing the impacts of narcotics on state capacity, security and public health and ending with brief recommendations.

Raising taxes on tobacco is the most effective tool to prevent rising tobacco-related deaths in Africa. Tobacco companies claim that higher taxes aren't worth it because they will cause more smuggling. In this

ICTD Policy Brief, I argue the opposite case.

"Formalising the Informal Economy" is increasingly presented as a policy option to raise government revenue in the Global South. In this piece for the ICTD, Vanessa van den Boogaard and I note that there are good reasons for skepticism and caution - and outline research still needed to better understand these dynamics

The pandemic has highlighted deep inequalities in North Africa's economies - and the need for governments to include marginalised groups in fiscal policies. 

In this blog, Vanessa van den Boogaard and I highlight the vulnerability of informal workers in the COVID-19 crisis, outline the reasons why many of the economic relief programs have not reached informal economies, and suggest policy measures that can support informal workers in the global south.

In this article, Isabelle Werenfels and I analyse the upcoming Tunisian presidential election, examining how the death of President Essebsi has affected the campaign, analysing the candidates' diverse claims to continuity, and discussing how the election may shape the country's political institutions in years to come. 

Popular talking points suggest that smuggling in North Africa is occurring under the radar of its states, and is subverting them through corruption and the creation of porous borders that terrorist groups can exploit. Proposed solutions, including new border walls and internationally funded surveillance equipment, have focused on improving the surveillance capacity of states and raising the costs of cross-border movements. But this misunderstands the role states play in the region’s smuggling economies, I argue in this piece for the Washington Post's 'MonkeyCage'.

January 2019 marked the eighth anniversary of the end of the Ben Ali dictatorship – the celebrations however were marred by massive social protests. Opinions both in Tunisia and abroad differ about the state of Tunisia’s political development as it gears up for its second parliamentary and presidential elections since the adoption of the new constitution in 2014. While some consider its democratisation to be virtually complete, others fear a relapse into autocracy. Despite its considerable democratic achievements, Tunisia is in danger of developing into a hybrid system: part democratic, part authoritarian. This is not only due to the difficult economic and regional con­text. Critically, the political, economic and administrative networks of the old system, as well as persistent authoritarian practices and “old” rhetoric in politics and society, complicate the deepening of its fragile democracy. Tunisia’s international partners should make it their explicit objective to weaken these counter-currents, I argue in this article written with Isabelle Werenfels (SWP).

As it seeks to support “stability” in North Africa, the international community needs to think less about strong states, and more about strong opposition, I argue in this article for the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). 

In this issue of the 'Mediterranean Dialogue Series' I argue for a new approach towards the study and understanding of transnational organised crime in the Maghreb and the Sahel, together with Matt Herbert, Jihane Ben Yahia and Riccardo Fabiani. My argument focuses in particular on the relationship between organised crime and distributional politics in the region. 

Following the largest strike in Tunisia's modern history with more than 670,000 participants, I discuss its likely effects on Tunisia's political system in this column for Middle East Eye. 

The current discourse on building a 'level playing field' in Tunisia risks reframing the exploited of yesterday as the underperforming of tomorrow. My latest column for Middle East Eye looks at structural inequality and the argument for affirmative action:

In this piece for Ce.S.I.'s edited volume on "The Libyan Maze - The Path to Elections and the Future of the Reconciliation Process", I discuss the effect of smuggling networks on local communities in Libya, highlighting their role for local political actors and armed groups. 

Although Libya’s drop in migrants isn’t related to Tunisia’s increase, policy is needed on the issue, I argue with Matt Herbert in this article for the Institute for Security Studies.

Rather than making North Africa safer, securitizing borders has raised the risk of instability along the region’s frontiers, where communities depend on smuggling, Matt Herbert and I argue for Carnegie's Sada. 

“We let go if you let go,” reads a banner hoisted a few miles from Ras Ajdir, one of the main border crossings between Tunisia and Libya. For weeks, the border crossing has been blocked by Libyan authorities from one side, and Tunisian smugglers on the other side. I argue that the current stand-off points to a larger challenge for both the Tunisian and Libyan state: the absence of a unified plan on how to manage its border economies in a post-2011 world.

More than half of North Africa’s labour force is employed in the informal economy, typically working without contracts, unions, or access to social insurance schemes. The intersection of economic marginality, underdevelopment, and abuse by law enforcement have made the region’s informal workers a powerful symbol of social injustice around which protest movements have rallied. I outline the role of the informal economy in the region's development models and point towards alternative routes for reform in this policy paper for the Friedrich Ebert Foundation. 

Protest movements in the Middle East and North Africa are not confined by geographical boundaries: groups pick up strategies, technologies, slogans and songs from their counterparts across the region. Traditionally, Morocco has not been a noted exporter of protest movements. But this is likely to change...

My comments for France24 on the January 2018 austerity protests in Tunisia, discussing responsibility, the role of the IMF, and the impact of Tunisia's political 'consensus' strategy. 

My op-ed on the January 2018 austerity protests in Tunisia, and how the current crisis exposes the weakness of Tunisia's post-revolutionary political landscape.

On Sunday, 17 December, it will be seven years since Mohamed Bouazizi, an informal street vendor from Sidi Bouzid, took his own life. In the revolution that followed, he became a symbol of Tunisia's marginalised, those who had to create their own jobs, without rights, support or security.

The economic origins of the Tunisian revolution lie in predation and exclusion. Both came with their own figurehead – while Bouazizi became the symbol of the excluded, the dictator's wife, Leila Trabelsi, emerged as the symbol of a corrupt and predatory state elite.

One represented an image of a state that is painfully present, one of a state that is painfully absent...

Between October 1st and November 8th, more Tunisians took to the seas than in 2015 and 2016 combined. Matt Herbert and I clear up common misconceptions about the migration surge, and connect it to the economic deterioration of Tunisia's South, and conclude that this trend will not present sustainable solutions to Tunisia's problems of regional equality and economic indignity.